The tropics are heating. Tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico is likely later this week.
An area of low pressure located over Georgia is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico towards the middle of the work week. Tropical development is likely as the area of low pressure moves over the warm water in the Gulf of Mexico.
There is a 10-percent chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and an 80-percent chance of tropical formation over the next 5 days.
A tropical depression will likely form by the end of the week. If it strengthens into a named storm, it will be named Barry.
Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall and rough surf along portions of the northern Gulf Coast towards the middle and end of the work week. If you’re headed to the Gulf Coast this week, make sure you’re watching this storm very closely.
This system will likely hang out near the northern Gulf Coast through the start of the upcoming weekend.
Where it goes from there is still a big question mark. The forecast models are not in good agreement on where this system will ultimately end up.
The latest run of European model has shifted the track of this system farther west and has it making more of northern push towards Louisiana and the ArkLaTex late this weekend through early next week. However, the GFS does not develop the system as much and pushes it west and into the Texas coast. Even though tropical development is likely, the exact track and strength of this system still needs to be determined.
Keep in mind, this system is still a couple days away from forming, so there is still plenty of time to watch this system develop.
The heat will continue to dominate our weather headlines through midweek. Highs will be in the low to upper 90s all week.
Keep in mind, the humidity will add about 10 degrees to the actual air temperature. Borderline dangerous heat will be each afternoon.
Parts, if not all, of the ArkLaTex could be put under a HEAT ADVISORY later this week. Max heat indices each day this week will be on either side of 105 degrees.
With an area of high pressure over the area, rain will likely remain very limited through most of the work week. With all the heat and humidity around, a few pop-up showers and storms will be possible each day.
Our rain chances will go up a little as a cold front drops south into the area on Thursday. Scattered to widespread showers and storms are not expected with this front.
Our rain chances this weekend will likely depend on what the system in the Gulf of Mexico does. If the cold front makes it the coast, it could keep the tropical system east of the area.
The KSLA News 12 First Alert Weather Team will continue to be your First Alert on tropical development this week. Here’s how you can stay up to date with the latest forecast.
- Download the free KSLA First Alert Weather app to your smartphone
- Check the weather page at KSLA.com
- Follow KSLA First Alert Weather on Facebook and Twitter
- Watch KSLA News 12 on television or on Roku and Amazon Fire TV
https://www.ksla.com/2019/07/08/first-alert-tropical-development-likely-gulf-this-week/